An experienced analyst is speculating that if the Nintendo Switch 2 hits the shelves in the first half of 2025, PlayStation 5 sales will surpass those of the new console in the U.S. Mat Piscatella from Circana has also forecasted that the fervor surrounding Nintendo’s upcoming next-gen console will likely lead to several months of supply shortages due to the high initial demand.
### Can the PS5 Outsell the Switch 2 in the US if Supply Is Not an Issue?
While Piscatella hasn’t provided extensive details on why he believes the PS5 will top the Switch 2 in its debut year, he has pointed to potential supply constraints and the possibility of a late 2025 release as factors. That does raise the question of whether his prediction would change if Nintendo manages to meet hardware demand without hitches.
It’s certainly a daring forecast, especially since the PS5 is moving into the latter part of its product lifecycle. However, if Grand Theft Auto 6 does drop this year, we might see a significant spike in demand for Sony’s console.
Piscatella shared on Bluesky, “I’m anticipating Nintendo’s next piece of hardware will sell about 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming a launch in the first half of the year. This would mean it accounts for roughly a third of all video game console units sold that year, excluding PC portables. Naturally, the actual units sold will hinge on manufacturing capabilities and supply readiness. I still predict that the PlayStation 5 will come out on top in overall hardware units sold in the US during that period.”
We’re curious—what do you think about these projections?
